Executive Summary
Recommendation
Execute cedar purchase now at $3.40/lf from Legacy Pre-Finishing (NC).
Waiting until March risks up to $61,600 in additional costs: $9,800 from seasonal price increases plus $51,800 if the best-priced vendor sells out. We are currently in a seasonal pricing trough - vendor quotes range from $3.40 to $4.10/lf (19% spread). At 140,000 linear feet, locking in the best quote now protects against both risks.
Vendor lead times average 4-6 weeks. Restoration historically begins between March and April depending on material availability and weather - the earlier the better. An early start reduces the risk of carpenters working into winter months, which slows progress and creates complications.
Best Quote (Jan/Feb)
$3.40 /lf
Legacy Pre-Finishing (NC)
Cost of Waiting
+$9,800
If delayed to March
Material Needed
140k LF
Max Scope Estimate
Seasonal Pricing Dynamics
Why STK is volatile: Select Tight Knot (STK) is the primary material for residential decking and siding. Its price closely tracks housing starts.
The "Spring Rush": As contractors break ground in April/May, demand for STK spikes. Mills raise prices to match demand.
Inventory Pressure: When demand spikes, lowest-priced vendors sell out first. By mid-spring, budget-friendly options disappear - leaving only premium-priced suppliers with available stock.
The Buying Window: January and February offer the lowest prices of the year. By March, winter discounts evaporate as contractors begin placing spring orders.
Assessment: STK prices are temporarily depressed due to winter shutdowns. This discount disappears the moment ground thaws.
Current Market Quotes
Vendor survey: 6 suppliers across East Coast (Jan 2026)
Best Quote
$3.40
Legacy Pre-Finishing
Average
$3.84
6 vendors
Highest
$4.10
Liberty Cedar
Vendor Selection Impact at 140K linear feet:
The 21% spread between vendors ($3.40 to $4.10/lf) represents a larger cost impact than seasonal timing alone.
| Vendor | Location | Price/LF | 140K linear feet Cost | vs Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legacy Pre-Finishing | NC | $3.40 | $476,000 | — |
| Buffalo Lumber | TN | $3.77 | $527,800 | +$51,800 |
| Lyon & Billard | CT | $3.80 | $532,000 | +$56,000 |
| Builder's FirstSource | CT | $3.93 | $550,200 | +$74,200 |
| Ring's End | CT | $4.04 | $565,600 | +$89,600 |
| Liberty Cedar | RI | $4.10 | $574,000 | +$98,000 |
Legacy Pre-Finishing: Buy & Hold Program
Legacy has offered to purchase and hold material at the quoted $3.40/lf with no additional storage fees. Material ships in batches of 25,000 LF as needed throughout the restoration season.
Eliminates storage logistics while locking in today's price.
2026 Price Forecast: Full Year
Historical seasonality + projected 3-5% year-over-year price increase applied to 2026 tariff baselines.
Chart Logic: Projections include both seasonal variation (spring/summer peak) and year-over-year price increase trend. The Lower Bound assumes a recessionary market (+1% YoY); the Upper Bound assumes standard demand plus full tariff impact (+5% YoY). Mean projection shows +3% YoY trend.
Geopolitical Risk: Canadian Softwood Tariffs
Current Combined Tariff: ~45%
- Anti-dumping duties: 14.63%
- Countervailing duties: 20.53%
- Section 232 tariff (Oct 2025): 10%
Current $3.40/lf price already reflects these tariffs.
2026 Risk Factors
- CUSMA Review: Trade exemptions "at risk" in 2026
- Jan 2026 Pause: Planned tariff increases canceled
- Direction: Could rise (CUSMA revoked) or fall (deal)
Cost of Waiting: Updated Quantity Models
100,000 LF
Baseline Estimate
120,000 LF
Revised Low End
140,000 LF
Revised High End
Vendor Availability Risk (140K linear feet)
If the best-priced vendor sells out or cannot fulfill the order, the next available tier costs significantly more.
Best Quote Now
$476,000
Legacy @ $3.40/lf
If Best Unavailable
$527,800
Buffalo Lumber @ $3.77/lf
Additional Cost
$51,800
+11% over best quote
Waiting risks losing access to the best-priced vendor. Low-cost suppliers often have limited inventory for large orders.
Total Risk Summary (140K linear feet)
Seasonal Risk
+$9,800
Waiting until March
Vendor Risk
+$51,800
If best vendor sells out
Combined Worst Case
+$61,600
Both risks materialize
Acting now eliminates both risks. Delaying exposes the project to one or both.
What $61,600 Could Mean for HVMA
Potential uses for the savings if both risks are avoided
15
Additional Shingle Roofs
at $4,200 average per unit
6
Additional EPDM Roofs
at $11,000 average per unit
$61,600
Reserve Fund Contribution
Strengthening long-term capital position
Note: Estimates based on average costs across 12 unit types. Actual savings depend on market conditions at time of purchase. Restoration scope varies by unit condition.